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Gold Keeps On Truckin'!

Gold futures finished Monday above $550 an ounce for the first time since early 1981, as weakness in the dollar helped spark investment demand for the metal.

"Gold continues to rally on continued U.S. dollar weakness, a trend I expect to continue over the next week," said Matthew Parry, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.

He added that he remains "reasonably bullish on gold over the medium term," forecasting that gold is headed for the $575 mark on further expectations for a lower dollar.

Gold for February delivery climbed as high as $551.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an intraday level not see since March 1981. It closed at $550.50, up $9.30, or 1.6%, at its highest closing level since January 1981, according to weekly charts.

Prices have since pulled back slightly in after-hours electronic trading, falling as low as $548.60.

Overall, "gold bulls have been out in force across most of [Monday's] trade activity, driving the yellow metal to its highest level in a quarter century amid speculation of Asian Central Bank purchases, fund/investor portfolio diversification and concerns over the spread of bird flu," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, in a Monday report.

Looking ahead, "the path of least resistance in gold is still pointing upward," said Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com, in daily commentary. "The gold market continues to climb as long as the global economy is positively positioned."

But "certainly at some price point above the current market, gold will need some type of increased inflationary threat or a sharply lower dollar to extend to the upside," she warned.

Gold futures racked up gains of more than $22 an ounce last week, finding support from a weaker dollar and China's announcement that it will diversify its holdings of foreign reserves.

Although Chinese authorities didn't provide a timetable for any change -- nor specify that it would increase its emphasis on gold as a reserve -- "it comes at a time when there appears to be a strong consensus for further gains in gold prices over a medium- to longer-term view," said research firm Action Economics.

"Forecasts for rising demand in major emerging countries in 2006, coupled with constrained supply, underpin the longer-term outlook," Action added.

Analysts at Dundee Securities also expects gold to benefit from a weaker dollar.

The dollar has come under pressure in the past week from expectations that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its rate-raising cycle. At the same time, high energy prices have stoked inflation fears, bolstering demand for gold. See Currencies.

"We expect continuing record U.S. budget and trade deficits to weigh on the greenback," said P. Mark Smith, analyst with Dundee. "The greenback could weaken further and faster if Greenspan's replacement takes the chair and eliminates rate hikes or reduces rates."

Ben Bernanke is scheduled to take over as chairman of the Fed from Alan Greenspan at the end of January.

As gold prices rise, investment and jewelry demand is likely to grow, according to Smith. Meanwhile, the supply picture is weak with few discoveries despite record exploration spending.

"This implies future mine-supply declines, which could accelerate if producers take advantage of the price rise to process lower grades at constant throughput rates, thereby reducing gold production," he said.

Dundee expects gold to breach the $600-an-ounce level next year. Along these lines, the research firm raised its 2006 price target to $540 an ounce from $500 an ounce.

The company also raised its target for silver to $9 an ounce in 2006 and said that it expects the metal to breach $10 an ounce next year.

March silver closed up 11 cents at $9.283 an ounce, well above the contract's intraday low of $9.015. April platinum finished up $13.70 at $1,018.30 an ounce, its highest close since mid-December, and March palladium tacked on $7.20 to end at $280.60 an ounce.

Look for jewelers to significantly increase their prices for gold and platinum jewelry within the coming month.


Posted by Barry Gutwein on January 9, 2006 9:10 PM in Precious Metals | Comments (12)

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